The greater threat of Egypt becoming a failed state

Egypt's fate in balance amid warnings of civil war

Armed conflict has been predicted by foreign commentators - but the greater threat is Egypt becoming a failed state.

The crisis currently hitting Egypt is an open wound evident even to those who do not follow the political fight between an interim government struggling for control and the supporters of a deposed president refusing to admit defeat. It’s seen in the regular violent episodes that leave scores dead, usually on the side of those supporting the reinstatement of President Mohamed Morsi. It’s visible in the burned and gutted buildings in Giza, Nasr Square and Rabaa. It takes form in regular, random clashes between people on the street, paranoid, shouting, arming themselves with clubs and forming civilian roadblocks all over the city. It’s no wonder then the possibility of Egypt falling into failed state status - a government failing in legitimacy and providing basic services and functions - or spiraling into a civil war, have dominated much of the international discourse on the country’s future. International analysts, pundits and diplomats warn that if left unchecked, the violence in Egypt could escalate into civil war. However, Egyptian commentators disagree. They say that the Muslim Brotherhood, the main opponent to the military-backed government, could never become an effective armed group, and is losing support. Besides, the Brotherhood has never threatened war to achieve its aim of the return of its president. However, the country faces the very real danger of becoming a failed state, according to political analysts, if the political crisis continues to drag on. The country was teetering on the brink of failure even before the latest bout of violence. The 2013 Fund for Peace Failed State Index ranked Egypt’s status as critical, naming it the 34th least-stable country out of 178. Given the political instability, a month-long declared state of emergency called by the interim regime, and the disruption of banking and financial markets, the situation does not look set to improve for some time to come. Economically, the country has been struggling for some time, and the recent political upheavals have not helped. Egypt will have a long transitional period, and with that comes all the instability and violence that will continue to endanger state institutions. Government bonds and the EGX30, Egypt’s security stock index, have slumped. Shops and restaurants in most quarters of the capital remained closed for a third day as cash machines ran dry in downtown Cairo. Even the $12 billion or so in aid from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait is unlikely to get Egypt through the current turmoil. And as usual and from experience Arab Sheikhs never kept their promises. This promised Arab Golf Aid can’t support Egypt’s transitional period for more than five or six months under a more stable conditions. It can’t be counted on as the Brotherhood counted on money from Qatar during Morsi’s time. The current interim government “does not have a political mandate to tackle the economic issues –  this isn’t a caretaker government that can cut expenses, cut subsidies and raise taxes. They are only increasing the salaries of the police and armed forces!! And we know why?? And what’s really needed for economic stability – political stability – is nowhere in sight.